393
FXUS61 KALY 232320
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT,
WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 95-100 POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
NEAR NORMAL.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC, WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC. 925-850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 16-20 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MIXING, PM HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH THE LATER FAVORED MAINLY IN THE
MOHAWK/HUDSON VALLEYS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE PM
HEAT INDICES, WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY DEWPOINTS AND HOW
HIGH THEY CAN CLIMB DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RESTRICTS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE NBM/NAM THE MOST EXTREME IN
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S, AND THE HRRR ON THE OTHER
SIDE PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING AND DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 60. FAVORED
MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND WITH THIS PACKAGE, WHICH IN TURN KEEPS
PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 RANGE. THE HIGHER VALUES ARE
FAVORED MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE LAKE GEORGE-
SARATOGA REGION, THOUGH OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IN
THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE DEPTH OF MIXING POTENTIALLY LIMITING
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAT INDICES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95-100 DEGREES
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GET WARMER, WITH MUCH OF IT
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THOUGH
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PROMOTE MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
(50-70%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S/LOW 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%)
OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS FLOW SWITCHES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN 50S/60S.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS
LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PATCHY STRATOCU DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT SO KEPT CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME. A MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS COULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KGFL BETWEEN 06-12Z/THU. THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE DRY
WEATHER WITH DEVELOPING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 4000 FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT AT KALB) THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AT AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT
KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...SPECK
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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