398
FXUS61 KALY 240812
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH 40-60 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO
END THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASED FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 95 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEW
YORK; HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOHAWK,
UPPER, AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
- 5-14% CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY TOMORROW; PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST TODAY BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY. PROBABILITIES BASED ON
LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95
PERCENT FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN 95 AND 98 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR PROLONGED FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY
BEING GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES, WE HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND LOW 70S IN VALLEYS, CONTRIBUTING TO LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TONIGHT. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING 40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES FOR MORNING AND AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AHEAD OF IT. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW ARE LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (5-14% CHANCE) DEPENDING ON
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS TO HELP CONTRIBUTE STORMS HAVING STRONG
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY BEING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, WHICH IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WHILE EXACT TIMING, LOCATIONS, AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN HIGH RESOLUTION
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, BE PREPARED
TOMORROW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S. LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR SUNDAY, LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL
FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK ARE LOOKING TO RANGE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL PATCHY CLOUDS WITH BASES 4000-6000 FT AGL. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KGFL
THROUGH ~08Z/THU WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK EXCEPT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 5-10 KT AT KALB. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08Z/THU AT KPSF AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN UNDER 5 KT WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...KL/RATHBUN
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