968
FXUS61 KALY 241737
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT, WITH SOME HAVING POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER WARMUP WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASED FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 95 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEW
YORK; HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOHAWK,
UPPER, AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
- 5-14% CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY TOMORROW; PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST TODAY BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TODAY. PROBABILITIES BASED ON
LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.3 DATA FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 85 AND 95
PERCENT FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN 95 AND 98 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR PROLONGED FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY
BEING GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES, WE HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORIES
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS AND LOW 70S IN VALLEYS, CONTRIBUTING TO LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TONIGHT. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING 40 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCES FOR MORNING AND AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AHEAD OF IT. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW ARE LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (5-14% CHANCE) DEPENDING ON
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS TO HELP CONTRIBUTE STORMS HAVING STRONG
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY BEING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP IS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, WHICH IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WHILE EXACT TIMING, LOCATIONS, AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN HIGH RESOLUTION
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, BE PREPARED
TOMORROW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 80S. LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. FOR SUNDAY, LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL
FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS SUPPORTING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK ARE LOOKING TO RANGE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 18-24 HRS WITH SOME MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBILITIES FROM KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS 14Z-18Z/THU. PRIOR TO THAT...FEW-SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF
SITES. THE CUMULUS MAY BECOME BROKEN IN COVERAGE FROM KALB-KPSF
SOUTH AND EAST BRIEFLY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SCT STRATUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME THICKENING OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OR EVEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD. WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI LESS THAN
10 KT AND MAYBE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 4 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KALB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 04Z-09Z/FRI AT THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z-14Z/FRI
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS 5 KT OR LESS, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2 KFT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 25-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST/WEST
AT 5-10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ052-053-059-
060-064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038-040-041-
043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...WASULA
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