512
FXUS61 KALY 241848
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
248 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT, WITH SOME HAVING POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER WARMUP WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH PM PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 100S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST CT, MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
- BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THESE VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON
VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS TOPPING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL LEAD TO
PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 95-100 IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS,
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 PM. NOT MUCH IN
THE RELIEF WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S
(TERRAIN) TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS) AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING HIGH.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY BUT SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THEY
LOSE ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK LLJ. SOME WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH MOST JUST SEEING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE CLOUDS KEEPING US SLIGHTLY
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S OUTSIDE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PM PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO THE 95-105 RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHER END OF VALUES FAVORED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM. CONFIDENCE
IN ACHIEVING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR A PROLONGED
DURATION IS LOW, SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COBLESKILL NY TO TICONDEROGA NY, WITH AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CT. WITH AMPLE ML CAPE VALUES, SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
(PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1.75-2.25" RANGE).
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT POST FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADKS MAY SEE UPPER 40S.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE AND RENEWED MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL FOLLOW AND PROVIDE A DRY BUT WARM DAY SATURDAY AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN. THE RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WILL DRIVE A
RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, THOUGH WE WILL BE
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CHANGE. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS
TIME IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.50-2.00"
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 80S (VALLEYS).
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUILDING RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP NEAR ZONAL
TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE LATE JULY NORMALS. LATEST
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S AND LOWS NEAR
70 OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 18-24 HRS WITH SOME MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBILITIES FROM KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS 14Z-18Z/THU. PRIOR TO THAT...FEW-SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF
SITES. THE CUMULUS MAY BECOME BROKEN IN COVERAGE FROM KALB-KPSF
SOUTH AND EAST BRIEFLY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SCT STRATUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME THICKENING OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OR EVEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD. WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI LESS THAN
10 KT AND MAYBE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 4 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KALB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 04Z-09Z/FRI AT THE TAF SITES AND CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z-14Z/FRI
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS 5 KT OR LESS, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2 KFT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 25-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST/WEST
AT 5-10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ052-053-059-
060-064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038-040-041-
043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...SPECK
AVIATION...WASULA
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