516
FXUS61 KALY 250551
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT, WITH SOME HAVING POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH
ANOTHER WARMUP WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH PM PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 100S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST CT, MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
- BRIEF REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS ENDED, WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS) AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY BUT SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE AS THEY
LOSE ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK LLJ. SOME WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH MOST JUST SEEING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE CLOUDS KEEPING US SLIGHTLY
COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S OUTSIDE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PM PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO THE 95-105 RANGE, WITH THE
HIGHER END OF VALUES FAVORED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM. CONFIDENCE
IN ACHIEVING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR A PROLONGED
DURATION IS LOW, SO OPTED TO NOT ISSUE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COBLESKILL NY TO TICONDEROGA NY, WITH AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CT. WITH AMPLE ML CAPE VALUES, SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
(PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1.75-2.25" RANGE).
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT POST FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADKS MAY SEE UPPER 40S.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE AND RENEWED MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL FOLLOW AND PROVIDE A DRY BUT WARM DAY SATURDAY AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN. THE RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WILL DRIVE A
RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS BEST INSTABILITY IS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, THOUGH WE WILL BE
MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CHANGE. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS
TIME IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.50-2.00"
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 80S (VALLEYS).
FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUILDING RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP NEAR ZONAL
TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE LATE JULY NORMALS. LATEST
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S AND LOWS NEAR
70 OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. AS THE FRONT
MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, KGFL COULD SEE EARLIER START TIME FOR
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WHILE KPOU IS LATER BETWEEN 18Z AND
20Z. CONDITIONS COULD RANGE BETWEEN LOW VFR AND MVFR WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AIRFIELD, VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS FORECASTED.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS
BEFORE BECOMING CALM FOR BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...SPECK
AVIATION...WEBB
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