533
FXUS61 KALY 251040
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT
AND HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM EDT, ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS INTO WESTERN NY. WE EXPECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAIN COLD FRONT WAS STILL
LOCATED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SERVE AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FUTURE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING
EAST/SOUTHEAST. AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AREAS ALONG AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES
WHERE SOME OVERLAP OF STRONGER 0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KT) AND MU
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT, PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY SMALL CLUSTERS WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, REMAINING WARM/HOT AND HUMID, WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH 95-100 IN VALLEY AREAS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH, AS WELL AS ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THESE
AREAS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM TODAY, THOUGH MAY BE DROPPED A BIT EARLIER IF CONVECTION
AND/OR THE FRONT PASSES SOONER.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION, OTHERWISE GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH PWAT'S DROPPING TO
0.50-0.80", CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS, WITH 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGHS REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS MAY TAPER
OFF BY LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 AND WEST OF I-87.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, THOUGH COULD BE
COOLER SHOULD SHOWERS LINGER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 90S IN VALLEY AREAS ON THESE DAYS, WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 95-100. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
OPPORTUNITIES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AND
CALM TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z, INCLUDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KGFL AS
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR THE AIRFIELD AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAINFALL WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z,
CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE INCLUDED IN PROB30
GROUPS. AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, KGFL COULD SEE
EARLIER START TIME FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WHILE KPOU
IS LATER BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. CONDITIONS COULD RANGE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AIRFIELD, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS
FORECASTED. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING CALM FOR BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/SPECK
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...WEBB
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