791
FXUS61 KALY 251832
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
232 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CONNECTICUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30%-60%) OF FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER 95 ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CONNECTICUT WHERE MLCAPE GREATER
THAN 1500 J/KG IN CONJUNCTION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
PM, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THIS EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, WITH 50S TO LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AND AFFECTING MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW
(5%-10% CHANCE).
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS ON THESE DAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THEREFORE, THERE IS
CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE (30%-60%) THAT FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES AND REQUIRE HEAT ADVISORIES TO
BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED WITH PROB30
GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGFL WHERE HIGH END IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THIS TAF. LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE, AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. KALB MAY
ALSO SEE SOME FOG, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORICAL IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
26/12-13Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONT AROUND 5-10 KTS. LIGHT & VARIABLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ052-053-059-
060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH/KL
DISCUSSION...TH/KL
AVIATION...SPECK
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