587
FXUS61 KALY 260004
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30%-60%) OF FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER 95 ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-90 SUPPORTING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWER CLUSTERS. CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS ARE LOW-TOPPED SO WHILE SHOWERS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY. WINDS ARE ALSO TURNING GUSTY
IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NYS MESONET SITES SHOWING GUSTS
UP TO 20-25MPH. ONCE THE MAIN FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
CLEAR THE REGION SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, SKIES BECOME CLEAR
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, WITH
50S TO LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD AND AFFECTING MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW
(5%-10% CHANCE).
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS ON THESE DAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THEREFORE, THERE IS
CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE (30%-60%) THAT FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES AND REQUIRE HEAT ADVISORIES TO
BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE GFL WHEN
PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN IFR VIS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BETWEEN 07
UTC AND 12 UTC. ANY FOG DIMINISHES BY 12 UTC WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THEREAFTER AT ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH 03 UTC BEFORE WINDS TURN LIGHT
& VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH/KL
DISCUSSION...TH/SPECIALE
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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