541
FXUS61 KALY 261724
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DRY AND HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A NOTABLE COOLDOWN
EXPECTED MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30%-60%) OF FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER 95 ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS OF 120 PM EDT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, HOWEVER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S HAVE LED TO A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE, COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300 AND
305K THETA SURFACES, INCREASING MIDLEVEL FORCING FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE IN A VERY MOST AIRMASS, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QUICK LOOK AT ADVECTED LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA (ALPW)
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TROPICAL
PACIFIC ORIGINS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL ALPW IMAGERY IS ALSO
SHOWING BUILDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THESE TWO STREAMS OF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING,
WHICH, PER BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS FOR ALB AND GFL, SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES WILL EXCEED 2.10" BY 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. QUICK LOOK AT
SPC SOUNDING CLIMO FOR ALB INDICATES A CALENDAR DAY MAXIMUM WILL
BE REACHED FOR JULY 27TH IF THESE VALUES ARE REALIZED.
REGARDLESS, ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEING
IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. IN ADDITION, BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING SLOW MOVING MBE VECTORS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALL THIS TO
SAY THAT CONCERNS HAVE INCREASED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
RECOGNIZING THE ABOVE, WORKED WITH WPC, BUF, AND BGM TO UPGRADE DAY
1 ERO TO A SLGT RISK FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW,
MOST CAMS SHOW HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN EXPECTED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. NBM INITIAL POPULATION DID INCREASE QPF
FOR THESE AREAS, HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR AREAS THAT SEE BACKBUILDING
SHWRS/STORMS. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT WEEKS, OVERALL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE, HOWEVER THE
ABOVE SIGNALS DEFIANTLY WARRENT AN INCREASE TO A SLGT RISK FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
MOVING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, REGION SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. REDEVELOPING
SHWRS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST PA INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VLY. AS A RESULT, GREATEST
AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND LWR HUDSON VLY. AS IS THE CASE THE
SUNDAY MORNING ACTIVITY, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TO RETURNING
HEAT AS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS CURRENT MIDWEST HEAT DOME SHIFTS EAST. RIGHT NOW,
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH MID 90S
EXPECTED IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS. QUICK LOOK AT THE LREF
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS A 60% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERAUTRES
EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH 925-HPA THERMAL AXIS. CANNOT RULE OUT
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH
LOW 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
FOLLOWING THIS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A
NOTABLE COOL DOWN TO END THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN BEGINNING AROUND 08-10Z/SUN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. THIS POTENTIAL HAS
BEEN ADDRESSED WITH A PROB30 IN THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AT 5-10 KT CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...GITRO
DISCUSSION...GITRO
AVIATION...SPECK
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