955
FXUS61 KALY 152319
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
719 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TONIGHT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW, MAKING
FOR A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY
LEVELS TURN UNCOMFORTABLE. THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM ALBANY TO POUGHKEEPSIE.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 149 PM EDT...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(AROUND 1024 HPA) IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME
DIURNAL CU OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR AUGUST WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, SKIES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY CLEAR
INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME LOWS
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE).
SOME PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN TYPICAL SPOTS, MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.
ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OFF
TO THE EAST. THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL
ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RECOVER, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WARM, AS 850 HPA
TEMPS AROUND +15 C SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND, ALTHOUGH FORCING IS LIMITED, SO COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EVENING, ALLOWING FOR
A QUIET BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
SUNDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PASSING WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
AND MUGGY ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN, SO THERE WILL BE SOME
DECENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY (AROUND 1000-15000 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS). HOWEVER, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS
FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO THE BEST DYNAMICS STAYING TO THE NORTH,
WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE WEAK DUE TO THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS STAYING TO THE NORTH.
WHILE A FEW ROGUE STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ML/AI
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOW-END THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING STORMS, SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR, BUT THE THREAT SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SPC CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR AREA OUT OF ANY OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME
BEING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE PASSING OF THE
BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOME VALLEY
AREAS APPROACHING 90. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION DOWN INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE
NBM SHOWS AROUND A 70% CHANCE OF REACHING 90 DEGREES. WITH THE
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S, BUT MAY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WPC HEAT RISK
SHOWS MAINLY MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
IMPACTS, SO HEAT HEADLINES PROBABLY WON'T BE NEEDED, BUT CAUTION
IS STILL ADVISED FOR THOSE SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME
OUTDOORS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE TO START NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR
HIGHS (SOME 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN) FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE LATE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE IN THE 40S AND 50S AS WELL.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START THE WEEK, A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE COULD RETURN THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY.
TC ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
OFFICIAL TRACK ON THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WFO ALY FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF DAY 7 (THURSDAY).
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES. AFTER MIDNIGHT, LOW STRATUS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, FIRST AT KPOU, THEN ADVANCE NORTHWARD
TOWARD KALB/KPSF. CIGS COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT KALB
AND IFR/MVFR AT KPOU/KPSF. LOW STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
KGFL, THOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MAINLY BETWEEN
9-11Z/SAT. ANY FOG OR LOWER STRATUS WILL LIFT SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE, WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 4-8 KT ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
DISCUSSION...FRUGIS
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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