543
FXUS61 KALY 170540
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
(95F) SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
AS OF 150 PM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK, SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS TODAY. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS OR STORM WILL BE RATHER
BRIEF AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY STORMS FROM
GETTING TOO TALL OR TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT WILL
REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY, ALLOWING FOR
A DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AGAIN,
SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WON'T BE AS COOL AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS STAYING
FAIRLY ELEVATED.
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE VERY WARM
AT +15 TO +19 C, SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY TO POUGHKEEPSIE
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH, WITH EARLY DAY VALUES IN
THE LOWER 70S AND THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 90S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE PROBABLY ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY
ANYONE SPENDING EXTRA TIME OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. WPC HAS HEAT RISK IN THE MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) CATEGORIES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (SBCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE) WILL BE IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED (20-25 KTS, PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS).
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STILL, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THANKS TO
DECENT DCAPE AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS
TO START THE WEEK WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S AS WELL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE MID-WEEK, AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD
AS WELL, SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY, BUT RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED FOR THE REGION. THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE
TO THE BEING SO FAR OUT IN THE TIME.
TC ERIN WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE RECURVING OUT TO
SEA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE ALY CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THRU 00Z MONDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL
TO MVFR WITH LOW STRATUS AT KPSF TO VFR AT KPOU/KALB WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOW STRATUS IN THE 1-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE TO EXPAND INTO KALB/KPOU BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SUN WITH
THE MVFR STRATUS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS AT KPSF PRIOR TO
12Z/SUN. KGFL DUE TO RECENT WET GROUND IS STUCK IN RADIATIONAL
FOG/MIST PRIOR TO 12Z/SUN. WE EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN THE LATE MORNING
BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/SUN IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. A COLD FRONT AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WE USED PROB30 GROUPS 19Z-22Z/SUN AT KGFL,
20Z-23Z/SUN AT KALB AND 21Z/SUN TO 00Z/MON FOR KPSF AND KPOU FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR.
LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN TIGHTEN THE THUNDERSTORM PROBS WINDOW.
LINGERING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS WILL
PERSIST AFTER 00Z/MON.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT AT KALB THIS MORNING AND
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 4 KT OR LESS AT THE OTHER SITES. THEY
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 4-8 KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT 5-10 KT. SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
DISCUSSION...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WASULA
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