393
FXUS61 KALY 171050
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID, WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS TO FEATURE CONTINUED COOL
AND DRY WEATHER, ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND WESTERN
DUTCHESS COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-98 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
.DISCUSSION:
AS OF 2:15 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE TO
OUR EAST, WITH A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO OUR NORTH. WE ARE SEEING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS
ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT SAW SHOWERS YESTERDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW, WE MAY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN CT AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK, BUT IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN LAST NIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADKS WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S SINCE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THERE.
TODAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NY/NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS,
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +16 TO +19C, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(HEAT INDICES >95F) TO BE MET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TODAY, SO HEAT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND
WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES. WILL NOTE THAT THIS IS A LOWER-END
ADVISORY, AND IF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
THEN WE COULD FALL SHORT OF THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WHILE SOME AREAS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE
HEAT INDICES AROUND 95 TODAY, ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE IS 2 DAYS
OF HEAT INDICES >95F, AND THUS NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DESPITE
SIMILAR EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TO THOSE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA (UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE PER THE
00Z HREF) OVERLAPPING WITH 20 TO PERHAPS 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 750-1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE ALSO SOME QUESTION MARKS, INCLUDING WARM AIR
ALOFT/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE BEST UPPER FORCING
REMAINING WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION, AND THE FACT THAT
INSTABILITY COULD BE LESS THAN MODELED IF WE SEE DEEPER DAYTIME
MIXING AND LOWER DEW POINTS. THERE IS ALSO NOT MUCH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR EITHER. AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND DEEP COLD POOLS, EXPECTING AN
EVOLUTION INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. ALL THIS SAID, WHILE THERE
ARE LIMITING FACTORS PREVENTING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT,
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY AI/ML GUIDANCE AS WELL. WHILE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, PWATS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT 1.6 - 1.8",
AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST ENOUGH THAT WE AREN'T CONCERNED
ABOUT HYDRO ISSUES. IN FACT, MOST AREAS NEED THE RAIN WITH THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BEHIND IT. ANY SHOWER AND STORMS DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BY N/NW WINDS. AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TOMORROW AND WE GET INTO NW FLOW
ALOFT, LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY EVENING
IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK OVER OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER OUR
REGION BELOW NW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (COOLER
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN), BUT THEN WE WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY, HURRICANE ERIN WILL
TRACK NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC, THEN TURN TO THE E/NE AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT EAST COAST BEACHES, NO DIRECT IMPACTS
TO OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR MORE INFO ON ERIN.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THRU 12Z MONDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND MVFR MIST TO VFR AT KPOU,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR
TO 15Z/SUN. WE EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN THE LATE MORNING BETWEEN
14Z-16Z/SUN IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WE USED PROB30 GROUPS 19Z-22Z/SUN AT KGFL, 20Z-23Z/SUN AT KALB
AND 21Z/SUN TO 00Z/MON FOR KPSF AND KPOU FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR. LINGERING HIGH
MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CIGS WILL PERSIST AFTER
00Z/MON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST TO
NORTH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT
5-10 KT. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
DISCUSSION...MAIN
AVIATION...WASULA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page