023
FXUS61 KALY 180448
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRY AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WEEK'S END.
DISCUSSION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE YESTERDAY'S FRONT, A NOTABLE COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH
MONDAY AND AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY, WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS BOTH DAYS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. IN DEWPOINTS, MONDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO RENEWED SHWR CHANCES ACROSS THE
FCST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST TO ENSURE HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA. UNFORTUNATELY
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT,
W/LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HR QPF OF 0.50" OR MORE
REMAINING LESS THAN 30% FOR OUR FCST AREA.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO OUR EAST, WEAK UPPER RIDGING,
COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S,
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR
OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE
FEATURES, COMBINED WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT MAY BE
WIDESPREAD SHWR COVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AS OF 12:50 AM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR
AT ALB/GFL/POU AND MVFR AT PSF. SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
AT POU/PSF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT PSF TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NE AT AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT, THEN GUSTS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...32
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...MAIN
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