670
FXUS61 KALY 190526
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
UPDATE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ADJACENT TO THE CT RIVER IN SE VT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND I-90
NORTH.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT, PROVIDING A CONTINUED
DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECOUPLE,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SO SOME
AREAS WILL HAVE A LIGHT EAST WIND AT TIMES. WITH THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COOL FOR MID AUGUST WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME COLDER
SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND CONTINUES TO BRING
DRY/COOL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD OUR WAY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY. TRENDS IN 12Z CAMS
(HRRR/NAMNEST) SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND HIGHER QPF
ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH. NBM GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER, SO
WILL BLEND IN SOME OF THE CAMS DATA TO REFLECT AN UPWARD TREND
IN POP/QPF ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND I-90 NORTHWARD LATE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF WED. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO END UP BEING COOLER
IF A WETTER/CLOUDIER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. MOISTURE ISN'T
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND INSTABILITY IS BASICALLY NIL, SO HEAVY RAIN
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE BENEFICIAL.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS OUR REGION THU INTO FRI, AS
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS. BY SAT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH ABOVE
NORMAL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
IT APPEARS RIDGING SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SAT WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER, THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LOOK TO INCREASE
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN, AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT BY MON,
HOWEVER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH THE ANTICIPATION FOR SUCH TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THOUGH
FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE USUALLY SUSCEPTIBLE
SPOTS OF KGFL AND KPSF, INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
TO MITIGATE THIS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SPEAKING OF INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE, HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE THAT COULD
SEE RAIN BEGINNING BEFORE THE TERMINATION OF THE 06Z PERIOD IS
KGFL SO A PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED ACCORDINGLY. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND WITH FUTURE ITERATIONS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BEGIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE CLOSE OF THE 06Z CYCLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...KL
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GANT
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