043
FXUS61 KALY 201835
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
235 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT TOMORROW THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW, BUT WARM BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 2:35 PM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARDS INTO NY. ALOFT, GOES 16 WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS OUR REGION.
THERE IS ALSO A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH AT THE SURFACE WE REMAIN IN A
CHILLY AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
CIRA ALPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARDS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW, AND THIS MOISTURE IS BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER THE
FRONT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND A BAND OF
850-700 HPA FGEN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE PROVIDING FURTHER
FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND THUS WE HAVE SEEN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN AND SHOWERS SO FAR TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND THE JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST
AREAS.
WHILE WPC HAS MUCH OF OUR REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 IN A
MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR TODAY, WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
HYDRO ISSUES. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND PWATS OF "ONLY" ~1.5"
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING HAVE KEPT RAINFALL RATES
GENERALLY BELOW 0.75" PER HOUR. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2" FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR, BUT GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS THIS RAIN WILL END
UP BEING QUITE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST AREAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, BUT THE
TREND SHOULD BE FOR A MUCH DRIER DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N/NW AND WE GET INTO NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S (TERRAIN) TO 70S
(VALLEYS) TOMORROW, AND 70S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 80S (VALLEYS)
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S,
WITH SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY TO GO
BELOW NBM OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WAS WELL-COLALBORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS.
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, HURRICANE ERIN WILL BE PASSING WELL OUT
TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ERIN WILL NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO
OUR CWA WITH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT TO SEA IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TC ITSELF
AND THE INCOMING SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 20-25 MPH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME AREAS
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON THE HUDSON RIVER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FOR MORE INFO ON ERIN,
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION,
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION, SO SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
TO CREEP UP WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE LOW 60S FOR SOME
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER, SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE WARMER, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND AND MOST AREAS RETAINING A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUNDAY STARTS OFF MAINLY DRY.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (ULL) WILL BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES, AND THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED LOW WILL TRACK NEAR
HUDSON BAY, DRAGGING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN, BUT
WITH STRONG FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHEAR. IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY, THEN SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD, THE CPC IS EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR DAYS
8-14.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY RETURNING BETWEEN 21/12-15Z. THESE
VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOW VSIBILITIES WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERIODICALLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT AT KPOU WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 10 AND 18 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
DISCUSSION...MAIN
AVIATION...WEBB
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