258
FXUS61 KALY 210627
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
227 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
THOSE TYPICAL OF LATE-AUGUST TODAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR SATURDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, COURTESY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK CLOSER TO AND EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HURRICANE ERIN WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY BEFORE MAKING A NORTHEAST TURN OUT TO SEA OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE
'HURRICANE ERIN' SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE MINOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF ITS NEARBY DEPARTURE FARTHER
INTO THE ATLANTIC.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY (20-50% THUNDER) AND MONDAY (20-40%
THUNDER) BUT TIMING AND SPREAD OF CONVECTION STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
HURRICANE ERIN....HURRICANE ERIN, AS IT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, HAS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE OUTER
BANKS, BEGINNING TO TAKE ON ITS HIGHLY ANTICIPATED NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. AS HAS BEEN THE EXPECTATION
FOR SOME TIME NOW, HURRICANE ERIN'S FAIRLY DRASTIC NORTHEAST
TURN WILL MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES WILL ENSURE ITS OUTER WIND
FIELD REACHES PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY THEREBY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS.
SPEEDS, SUSTAINED AND GUST, WILL, HOWEVER, FALL WELL UNDER EVEN
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH A MAXIMUM OF 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
CORRESPONDING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER
IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING ON THE HUDSON RIVER
NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE TONIGHT DUE TO ERIN'S RESULTING STORM SURGE.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOW CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA AND ISSUE
ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS NECESSARY.
7-DAY FORECAST....THE STEADY DEPARTURE OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING HAS FORCED THE RETURN OF REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS
AND MEAGER HEIGHT RISES COURTESY OF FLAT RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE LAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONE MOVE OVERHEAD AND AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY. DURING
THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL GO ON A BIT OF A WARMING TREND,
REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST TODAY, BUT
ACHIEVING JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE LARGELY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. VALUES RISE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE LANDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY WITH CORRESPONDING LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ATTENTION
THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH HOLD OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
UPPER MIDWEST BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONE ALSO
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN, EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PAIRED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE DIVERGENT ZONE OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER-LEVEL JET AND ZONE OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVE
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, TIMING
DISCREPANCIES WITHIN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE PERTAINING TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ITSELF HAVE
MADE IT A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENTLY, THE TRACK OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
TRUE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL MONDAY. SHOULD
THIS BE THE CASE, IT COLD BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE THE REQUISITE
INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDER IN GENERAL. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OCCURS LATER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE, SO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP REGARDLESS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CONDITIONS MOVING FORWARD.
AT THIS TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING,
YIELDING A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULSES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT GENERALLY THE ADVECTION OF DRY
AIR ON THE REAR FLANK OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING BACK GENERALLY
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
WITH 60S AND 70S AND SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 50S ABOVE 2000 FT.
LOWS WILL BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE 50S AND 60S
BUT BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, WE TREND DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUES AT ALB, PSF AND POU TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AT GFL. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALB FROM 06 TO 09 UTC GIVEN IFR CIGS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS BUT MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AT ALB AND PSF EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS BY 12 - 15 UTC.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AT POU THE LONGEST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO
CIGS AND VIS DELAYED UNTIL CLOSER TO 15 UTC. BY 15 - 18 UTC, ALL
TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME A BIT BREEZY
(SUSTAINED 5-9KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS...STRONGEST AT POU).
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
DISCUSSION...GANT
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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