250
FXUS61 KALY 221755
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION TODAY, WILL MOVE EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION:
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND NEAR WARMER
BODIES OF WATER. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MAINLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN COLDEST SPOTS TO UPPER 50S IN THE ALBANY AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA, A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON SAT. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES(JUST SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING), HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOWER
TO MID 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SAT NIGHT THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO FALL AS A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
ASCENT IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY.
AN ISOLATED T-STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SAT EVENING. LOWS WILL BE MILDER WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE RANGING FROM MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY WON'T MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS ON SUN,
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE
UPPER/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. SO SHOWER PROBABILITIES
LOOK HIGHEST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND LOWEST
EAST. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND, HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY(< 1000 J/KG CAPE) DEVELOPING, T-STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
OUR AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING, AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST ALONG WITH MODESTLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT
ANOMALIES APPROACHING +1 TO +2 STDEV). WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THREAT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. MUCH OF MON
LOOKS MILD AND HUMID, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
DROP LATER IN THE DAY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FILTERS IN MON NIGHT INTO TUE, DUE TO
A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SOME DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO A CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL PASS ACROSS THE SITES
ON SATURDAY WITH DEVELOPING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AROUND MIDDAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR ANY PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KGFL BETWEEN 06- 12Z/SAT. VARIABLE WIND AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. WIND
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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