652
FXUS61 KALY 052008
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND SOUTHERN GREENS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
YOU MAY NOTICE THIS EVENING, IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH FROM THE
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
A HAZY LOOK TO THE SKY AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS
HAZE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY EXIT TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THE SMOKE TO THE EAST. TO OUR NORTH, A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST WITH A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND EAST AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY.
LET'S DIVE INTO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BASED ON
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES: A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS OVERHEAD. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ARE PRESENT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY TOMORROW. WHAT INGREDIENTS DO WE LOOK FOR? WE
LOOK AT ENOUGH ENERGY (CAPE) IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT IS AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR TOMORROW, WE
HAVE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG THAT HELPS CONTRIBUTE
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. NEXT, WE LOOK AT WIND SHEAR FOR
HELP IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE LIKE TO SEE VALUES
GREATER THAN 30 FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, AND WE HAVE BETWEEN
40 AND 50. AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT A FEW OF THESE INGREDIENTS,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WE HAVE FOR TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS. AND THE PRIMARY
LOCATIONS ARE FOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TIMING: NOON TO 6 PM.
IMPACTS: PRIMARY HAZARD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (15-29% RISK). THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO TOMORROW FOR LOCATIONS
OUTLINED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
WHAT TO DO: HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
BY THE EVENING HOURS (6-8 PM), THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BE
EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
---
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COOL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY MORNING WHERE PATCHY FROST
COULD DEVELOP. THIS WILL DEPEND TOO ON CLOUD COVERAGE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EACH
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER CLEAR COOL NIGHTS. WITH WINDS NEXT
WEEK BEING CALM TO LESS THAN 10 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEING ABOVE 40%, WE ARE NOT CONCERNED FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EVEN WITH DRYING CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SAT...WITH CLOUD BASES BEGINNING TO REACH AND RISE
ABOVE 3000 FT AND COVERAGE BECOMING MORE FEW-SCT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU COULD REDEVELOP AT SOME
SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD ALSO PASS ACROSS SOME SITES TONIGHT BUT DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING, DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY VCSH WORDING AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD
BE BRIEF. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
15-18Z/SAT WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE SITES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HOLD OFF AT KPOU UNTIL AFTER 18Z/SAT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT KALB. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU BETWEEN 02-07Z/SAT AS
WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO 35-40 KT. WIND WILL BECOME
VARIABLE ON SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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