934
FXUS61 KALY 052357
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, AND SOUTHERN GREENS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
YOU MAY NOTICE THIS EVENING, IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH FROM THE
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
A HAZY LOOK TO THE SKY AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS
HAZE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY EXIT TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THE SMOKE TO THE EAST. TO OUR NORTH, A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST WITH A
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND EAST AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY.
LET'S DIVE INTO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BASED ON
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES: A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS OVERHEAD. INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ARE PRESENT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY TOMORROW. WHAT INGREDIENTS DO WE LOOK FOR? WE
LOOK AT ENOUGH ENERGY (CAPE) IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT IS AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR TOMORROW, WE
HAVE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG THAT HELPS CONTRIBUTE
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. NEXT, WE LOOK AT WIND SHEAR FOR
HELP IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE LIKE TO SEE VALUES
GREATER THAN 30 FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, AND WE HAVE BETWEEN
40 AND 50. AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT A FEW OF THESE INGREDIENTS,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WE HAVE FOR TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS. AND THE PRIMARY
LOCATIONS ARE FOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TIMING: NOON TO 6 PM.
IMPACTS: PRIMARY HAZARD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (15-29% RISK). THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO TOMORROW FOR LOCATIONS
OUTLINED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
WHAT TO DO: HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
BY THE EVENING HOURS (6-8 PM), THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO BE
EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHED ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
---
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COOL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY MORNING WHERE PATCHY FROST
COULD DEVELOP. THIS WILL DEPEND TOO ON CLOUD COVERAGE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EACH
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE UNDER CLEAR COOL NIGHTS. WITH WINDS NEXT
WEEK BEING CALM TO LESS THAN 10 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEING ABOVE 40%, WE ARE NOT CONCERNED FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EVEN WITH DRYING CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY PRIOR
TO 12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT.
A LOW CLOUD DECK IN THE MVFR RANGE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT KPSF TOWARDS 12Z (1.5-3 KFT AGL). CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE BETWEEN 12Z-15Z KALB TO
KPSF NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN. THE COLD FRONT
STALLS WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 17Z-22Z/SAT. TEMPO AND PROB30
GROUPS WERE USED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER T-STORMS
POSSIBLE FOR KPSF/KPOU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME BRIEF LAPSES TO IFR LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 22Z/SAT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LOW MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL SITES
EARLY TONIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KALB. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF LLWS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU BETWEEN 03-08Z/SAT, AS WINDS
AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO 35-40 KT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT PRIOR TO NOONTIME, THEN VEER
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM GUSTS TO 35 KT AND VARYING IN DIRECTION
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE TO LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...WASULA
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