089
FXUS61 KALY 060603
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM, A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS, IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
-SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. A LINE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
AS OF 203 AM EDT...A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND IT IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN YORK AND THIS BOUNDARY IS MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AND IT
WILL LIKELY BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, IT CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MILD AND A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY
SIDE, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED
EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MANY AREAS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH WILL KEEP A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO START
THE DAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE, ONLY PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO WESTERN AREAS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. CAMS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WILL KEEP
THUNDER FAIRLY ISOLATED FOR THIS AREA AND NO STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THESE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS NOON. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, CAMS SUGGEST A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION, CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE 2PM TO 6 PM TIME PERIOD.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN THE 40-60 KT
RANGE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, BUT SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, SOUTHEASTERN VT, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT) SHOULD
HAVE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THE
FRONT CAN GET CLOSE ENOUGH.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
ANY ORGANIZE CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO
A LOW RISK FOR A TORNADO TODAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS CAMS SUGGEST SOME DECENT HELICITY MAY BE
IN PLACE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR, INCLUDING WITHIN THE LOWEST
FEW KMS.
WHILE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES, RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THE FAST NATURE OF THE STORMS
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOWING DOWN, SO SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
A BIGGER THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE ALY CWA, AS
THE STORMS SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY 5 OR 6 PM.
THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY HEAVY AND THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE
ANY THUNDER LEFT BY THAT POINT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AS THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SETTLE FURTHER EAST.
TEMPS WILL VARIABLE TODAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND WHEN THE
FRONT BOUNDARY CROSSES. WHILE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SHOULD REACH
THE 70S TO LOW 80S BY AFTERNOON, AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
WILL SEE HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE STARTING TO DROP.
ON SUNDAY, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. THERE WILL BE A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY, WITH SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY, ALTHOUGH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN
CONTROL. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE JUST MILD ENOUGH TO AVOID
ANY FROST OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. SKIES WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR EACH DAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN
THE 40S AND 50S. AT THIS POINT, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DON'T
REALLY POINT TO ANY POTENTIAL FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH
THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDER POTENTIAL GENERALLY LOOKS TO LIE
WITHIN, SOUTH, AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, SO KGFL IS THE
ONLY SITE THAT DOES NOT CONTAIN TSRA IN THEIR FORECAST. GENERAL
TIMING FOR CONVECTION TODAY LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 16 AND 21Z
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 23Z OR SO. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF
FROM AROUND 02-06Z.
SHOWERS AT KGFL THIS AFTERNOON ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORCE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LOWERED CEILING HEIGHT, AT LEAST BETWEEN 16-18Z
WHEN RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST. THUNDERSTORMS AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF WILL
LIKELY FORCE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST CEILING HEIGHT IF
NOT ALSO WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SO MENTIONED THAT IN THE PROB30 GROUPS
THAT CONTAIN THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 GROUPS AT
KALB/KPOU/KPSF WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE
12Z UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IN STORM TIMING INCREASES.
UPON THE CONCLUSION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN BACK TO VFR ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KALB. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ADDITIONAL BATCH OF RAIN WITHIN
THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, KPOU AND KPSF COULD RETURN BACK TO
MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS ELEMENT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z CYCLE WILL BE
FAIRLY VARIABLE FOR MOST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF ITS DURATION WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY FALLING UNDER 10 KT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AT LEAST 40 KT, BUT STRONGER STORMS THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS AT GREATER MAGNITUDES.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, MAINTAINING SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER
10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
DISCUSSION...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GANT
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