786
FXUS61 KALY 090127
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
LEVELS BY MIDWEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ACROSS SW ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN
CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 9:25 PM EDT
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST NYS MESONET AND
ASOS OBS. OUTLYING/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES
QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHILE VALLEY AREAS HAVE
REMAINED UP TO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, AS VALLEY AREAS SHOULD ALSO RADIATE
EFFECTIVELY TONIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, AND
CALM WINDS. WILL ALSO MENTION POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH HERE TO WARRANT A FROST
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
PREVIOUS
WITH THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE CORE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT, TEMPS
SHOULD DROP OFF TO LEVELS AROUND 2-3F DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST
NIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SCHOHARIE COUNTY
AND SW ADIRONDACKS, WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THE
PREVIOUS FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN
CATSKILL REGION. SOME PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EVEN IN
SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROST ADVISORY, SUCH AS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT, HOWEVER COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE LIMITED IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MIN
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MID 40S.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH THE ONE CAVEAT OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY EXTENDING
NORTH/WEST OF A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG OFFSHORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY (<10%) AT THIS TIME, WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT FOR POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN POPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT COOLING TREND AS THE
FRONT PASSES. MIDWEEK HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S
IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER OVERALL PROBABILITY IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND
OVERALL TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, COOLER SHOULD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS PREVAIL.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 7:05 PM EDT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT GFL AFTER 05-06Z, AND AFTER 07-08Z AT PSF.
IFR AND LOWER VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS EXPECTED WITH ANY FOG/MIST
HERE. GIVEN EXPECTED VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND LATE TONIGHT, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE MOHAWK RIVER DRIFTING
OVER KALB SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS, BUT WILL MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY HERE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER VSBYS IF
THIS HAPPENS. AT POU, NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG, BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
WITH MIST ARE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
ANY FOG/MIST DISSIPATES BY 12Z, WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
AND JUST A FEW MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT INCREASE TO 5-8 KT
TOMORROW FROM THE E/NE AT ALB/PSF/POU.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
047-051-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT/KL
DISCUSSION...KL/MAIN
AVIATION...MAIN
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