519
FXUS61 KALY 102306
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 17Z, A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE OUTER BANKS, WITH SOME CLOUDS SEEN THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM IT MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS
WRITING WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUR DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN IN PLACE. DESPITE THAT, THERE IS ONE FEATURE TO NOTE. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND WILL REACH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WITH WEAK LIFT AND A MOISTURE
STARVED AIRMASS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY WITH CHANNELED FLOW AND IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
ADKS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN (VALUES HERE IN THE 60S), WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OUTSIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN
(VALUES HERE IN THE LOW 40S).
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
TRAILING COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OF A MEASURABLE RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.01" OF RAIN FOR THE AREA,
THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 60-80% ARE
BEING NOTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ADKS. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A MEASURABLE RAIN, THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE WIDELY
VARIABLE DEPENDING ON GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN FORCING,
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. IN
ADDITION, LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS OF INSTABILITY DUE TO STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR MORE UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OUTSIDE OF HIGH TERRAIN (VALUES HERE IN THE
LOW 60S), AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OUTSIDE OF HIGH
TERRAIN (VALUES HERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S)
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT
KGFL AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR VSBYS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
AT THE OTHER SITES. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBYS AT KPSF FROM
10-12Z/THU AND KEPT FOG OUT OF THE KALB/KPOU TAFS AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AND PASSING CIRRUS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
DISCUSSION...SPECK
AVIATION...RATHBUN
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