845
FXUS61 KALY 111719
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING JUST SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, RESULTING
IN COOL TEMPERATURES WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN TYPICALLY FAVORED
SPOTS. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS
OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ALONG A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVING,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM QUEBEC PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING, BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS
FRI.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN (LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S). HIGHS SAT
WILL REBOUND TO MID/UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRYING TREND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE INDICATING
A MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT DID LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY FROM NBM DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN WE'VE BEEN
IN ALONG WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
RESULT IS GENERALLY CHANCE POP DURING THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN AS THIS WOULD BE WHEN THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WOULD LIKELY BE OVERHEAD. THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MON, WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH MON.
DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TUE INTO WED, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATING A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION, BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH. FOR NOW, WILL MENTION
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5-6 KFT ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA, ALONG
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY, IT WILL STAY VFR WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THEY WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD, THERE MAY BE SOME
PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR KALB, KPOU AND KPSF. SCT-
BKN CIGS WILL BE 5-6 KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE,
KGFL WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR SO SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THERE. IT
SHOULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 04Z OR SO AND WILL LIKELY BE IFR/LIFR
FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2SM. KPSF
MAY HAVE SOME FOG TOO, ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON THE CLOUD
COVER THERE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH CLOUDS, FOG MAY NOT FORM. FOR
NOW, WILL ANTICIPATE ENOUGH BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
FOG THERE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, IT WILL
BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIP AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
DAY, MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page