401
FXUS61 KALY 121701
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 1018 AM EDT...ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY IN
SEPTEMBER IS SETTING UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. A FEW-SCT CUMULUS/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE I84 IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING INDICATES THE PWAT HAS
LOWERED TO 0.67" WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WE REMOVED THE
MORNING FOG/STRATUS FROM THE FORECAST AFTER SUNRISE AND TRENDED
TEMPS IN ALIGNMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IN WAKE
OF THE DISTURBANCE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED SPOTS OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM QUEBEC TODAY RESULTING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH
JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THU, BUT VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LOWS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN
FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SAT, PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS ALOFT START TO LOWER DURING THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SE CANADA. SO THERE COULD
BE SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH BREAKS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
AN OPEN WAVE/PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME
SPOTS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SUN
AFTERNOON (UP TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE) FOR A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD. THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS SUN NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK IN MON AND
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS MOST NIGHTS. WITH A REX BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN ALOFT SETTING UP (RIDGING GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST,
UPPER LOW SE CONUS), ANY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTTOM LINE IS
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT GFL/PSF TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED
TO TIME OUT FOG WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LATE FOG CONTINUES TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW AM WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG
AT ALB/POU. TOMORROW MORNING, ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES BY 12Z
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS THE LAT HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT PSF,
BUT DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT
FROM THE S/SW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...WASULA
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...MAIN
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