153
FXUS61 KALY 121808
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
208 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING UNTIL
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 208 PM EDT...ANOTHER PLEASANT LAST SUMMER DAY ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL CUMULUS RAPIDLY
DECREASING EARLY IN THE EVENING. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM AGAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH A FEW MID 50S NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY, AS A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW MAY FOCUS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
MEAGER ON THE CAMS AND HREFS, SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND MID 60S TO
MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
A COLD FRONT AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUN. THERE MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, IF LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY CAN
BE UTILIZED. THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUN. QPF LOOKS LIGHT
WITH MAINLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH ANY SHOWERS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER WITH 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS SUN NIGHT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. SOME PATCHY
MIST/FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS, IF THE SKIES CLEAR
AND THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES SUSTAINED DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS, AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY, MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA ON MONDAY AND SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH THE
THU. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE MID WEEK CONTINUES TO
RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK WITH RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA, THE
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND A CLOSED/CUT-OFF LOW OVER
OR NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (70S TO
LOWER 80S) AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH RADIATIVE MIST/FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS SEVERAL MORNINGS NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS ON FRI WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT, AS WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WHICH MAY LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT GFL/PSF TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED
TO TIME OUT FOG WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LATE FOG CONTINUES TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW AM WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG
AT ALB/POU. TOMORROW MORNING, ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES BY 12Z
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT TOWARDS THE LAT HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT PSF,
BUT DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT
FROM THE S/SW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...MAIN
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