294
FXUS61 KALY 130615
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST.
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HAVE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS.
- DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, PATCHY FOG ACROSS RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE
FOG LIFTS THIS MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS CANADA AND IS FAVORED BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS
TO DIG INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
TOMORROW BRINGING LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOCATIONS TO POTENTIALLY SEE
A RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR LESS THAN
0.01 INCHES. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, MOST LOCATIONS RANGE IN
THE 70S. DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE ADIRONDACKS, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE IN THE 60S. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IS IN STORE. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT RANGE IN THE 50S.
FOR TOMORROW MORNING, LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES BUT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY RANGE IN THE 70S AND IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 DEGREES
ABOVE WHAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S. EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP EACH MORNING NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ON A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES TO BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS FORECAST TIME, SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS HAVE
LOW CHANCES OF OCCURRING (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT). AND INTO
FRIDAY, A SIMILAR PATTERN TREND COULD OCCUR THAT IS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CANADA COULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCES
AS SOME ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE AND OTHERS IN
AGREEMENT OF THE TROUGH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR FUTURE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY, A LOW STRATUS MARINE CLOUD DECK LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD TOWARDS PSF AND SHOULD LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FROM PATCHY FOG AT GFL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12 UTC BUT GIVEN INCOMING CIRRUS, SHOW PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE CLOSE TO POU BUT LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO PERSIST SO ONLY
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH 12 UTC.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL AFTER 12-13 UTC SATURDAY AS ANY
EARLY LOW STRATUS/FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF. WHILE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON, ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. GIVEN THE DRY
AIR MASS, WE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE OPTIMISTICALLY AND
REMOVED MVFR VIS DURING ANY SHOWER. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING SWITCH TO THE WEST OR EVEN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
5-10KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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