304
FXUS61 KALY 140600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
-ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION.
-DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVERAGE. AS OF 2 AM, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THESE CLOUDS DON'T
BREAK, FOG WILL BE HARD TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. IF THEY DO, FOG
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE (OBSERVED ON LAST NIGHTS 00Z SOUNDING HERE
AT ALBANY) CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEING LIMITED TO REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHICH IS FAVORED BY
LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS. AS THE TROUGH HEADS EAST,
FORECAST MODELS SUPPORT FOR LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY LOCATIONS TO POTENTIALLY SEE A RAIN SHOWER ARE THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR LESS THAN 0.01 INCHES WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A FEW LOCATIONS YESTERDAY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
DID MEASURE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.02 INCHES BASED ON YESTERDAY'S
SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA, SO WE'LL CONTINUE THESE MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR TODAY'S SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL.
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, MOST LOCATIONS RANGE IN THE 70S,
BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOW 80S DEPENDING ON
THE CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM START TO THE WEEK IS IN STORE. FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND RETURN TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS RANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVERHEAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE NORMALLY EXPERIENCE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SEPTEMBER ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S.
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EACH MORNING THIS WEEK AS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ON A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES TO BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
FASTER PACE FOR THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD WHICH MEANS THAT THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS COULD SEE AN EARLY ONSET
TIME FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
FORECAST MODE GUIDANCES HINTING AT A FURTHER NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW, SO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALSO MOVED
MORE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES, AND
TACONICS. BUT THERE IS STILL A 15-20% LOW CHANCE FOR THESE
SHOWERS AT THIS FORECAST TIME, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS HAVE
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF OCCURRING. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FLUCTUATING WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES, BUT
FROM THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILISTIC
DATA SUGGESTS 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.01 INCHES
IS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES,
PROBABILITIES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT. RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE COASTAL LOW IS PROJECTED
TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A RETURN FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT FORECAST TRACK AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY HELPING BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS COULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER GFL AND ALB WITH HIGHER
CLOUDS TRACKING OVER POU. WHILE IFR VIS FROM FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PSF, VIS LIKELY IMPROVES TO MVFR AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TRACK CLOSER TO
PSF. OTHERWISE, AS STRATUS SHIFT AWAY FROM GFL, FOG LIKELY DEVELOPS
RESULTING IN IFR VIS; HOWEVER, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING INCLUDED
THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP. ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO FOR IFR VIS AT POU 09 -
13 UTC AS HIGH CLOUDS LIFT AWAY SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALB
LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR.
ANY EARLY FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT MID-LEVEL STRATUS
REDEVELOP BY 14 - 16 UTC AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN ARE
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY INCLUDED VCSH. SKIES BEGIN CLEARING AFTER 21-22
UTC FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVEN NORTHERLY BY MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
SUSTAINED AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
DISCUSSION...WEBB
AVIATION...SPECIALE
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