181
FXUS61 KALY 152327
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
THE EXPECTATION FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING
UNCHANGED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT FRIDAY FORCES A LOWERING TOWARDS NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC
BENEATH AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AS SUCH, TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EASTER NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, ONE AROUND THE CAROLINAS, AND THE HIGH BEING COMPRESSED
OVER THE GREATER NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE TWO, A REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL LOCK IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD SNEAK INTO
THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE NEARBY PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CAROLINAS LOW AS
IT TRAVERSES THE EAST COAST, LITTLE ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF A
TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH AMPLIFIED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES SITTING AT AROUND +10C TO +12C AND EVEN +13C, WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. VALUES TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S IN THE VALLEYS. AND WHILE THINGS COOL OFF BY A
FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER RESULTING
FROM THE COASTAL LOW, HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WEDNESDAY'S VALUES
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE COASTAL LOW PROGRESSES FARTHER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY BEGIN TO FALL. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WITHIN REACH TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS WITH VALUES OF LOW/MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS CLOUDS ERODE.
LOWS WILL THEN BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING ITS
COMPLETE PASSAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS SO NO DENT WILL BE MADE IN OUR
CURRENT DEFICIT. IN FACT, THE ONLY REAL IMPACTS THAT WILL RESULT
FROM THIS COLD FRONT ARE BREEZY WINDS AND A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL HAVE
QUITE THE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOW/MID 60S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOW 80S IN THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SWIFTLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, FORCING THE RETURN TO COMPLETELY DRY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGH VALUES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS WIDELY IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE CRESTING OVER US ON SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL REVERT RIGHT BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL SITES, WITH JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CIRRUS NEAR KPOU. AS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AT KGFL AND
KPSF, ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DENSE OR FORM AS EARLY AS
LAST NIGHT DUE TO A LARGE T-TD SPREAD COMPARED TO LAST EVENING.
WILL STILL EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER 08Z, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE, THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO PUSH TOWARDS KPOU AROUND SUNRISE AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON'T SUGGEST IFR CEILINGS THERE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE STRATUS SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING THERE TOO.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES AFTER
THE MID-MORNING HOURS, AS ANY FOG OR STRATUS DISSIPATES.
SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AND SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AROUND WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GANT
DISCUSSION...GANT
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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