317
FXUS61 KALY 010539
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY
BREEZE. WITH THE EXPECTED CHILLY TEMPERATURES, SOME FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 200 PM EDT...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY, A NORTHERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER AND
SOME DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
FAIRLY CLEAR WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. THE WINDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE SLIGHT BREEZE AND DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S,
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE ADIRONDACKS ENDS ON
OCTOBER 1ST, SO NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER QUEBEC. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT MIXING AND THE
GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SOME GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY, BUT
RATHER COOL, AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR THE COOLEST DAY SO FAR THIS YOUNG FALL.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
CHILLY NIGHT, AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT, FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HELDERBERGS WHERE THERE IS THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS (IN ADDITION TO THE
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ALREADY DONE). FOR
THE OUTLYING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY, FROST
MAY DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS, SO BE SURE TO COVER PLANTS OR BRING
THEM INDOORS TO KEEP THEM GOING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
AND CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, MORE CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH FROST MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION,
WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 850 HPA TEMPS
WILL BE RISING TO AROUND +14 C BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT, IT WILL STAY DRY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING EACH DAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH
CLOSE TO THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER WARM, WITH HIGHS AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 70S. SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN
5-10 KT THROUGH 13-15Z THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND
8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE BY EARLY
EVENING (22-23 UTC) WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE LAST WEEK. WHILE THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT ONLY SAW 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
DID ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE OF SOIL MOISTURE AND A WETTING OF
FUELS. ACCORDING TO THE NYS MESONET, THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT
INDEX (KBDI) IS SHOWING VALUES UNDER 200 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN DUFF AND SOIL LAYERS.
THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN DRY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
RECOVERY SINCE THIS RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH INPUT FROM THE NYS DEC
DIVISION OF FOREST PROTECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTER DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT HIGH RH HAS BEEN SLOWING THE DRYING SOMEWHAT.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE COOLER TEMPS SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST WINDS MAY BE IN THE MORNING HOURS, SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN RH VALUES
WILL BE FALLING IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. SOME ISOLATED
AREAS MAY SEE RH AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT. WHILE THE WINDS AND RH
VALUES ARE PROBABLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES,
THERE IS SOME ISOLATED RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD ON
WEDNESDAY.
WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-048-051-054-061-082>084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ047-058-063.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SPECIALE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
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