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FXUS61 KALY 011731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF NIGHTTIME FROST AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR LARGE AREAS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR BELOW
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION:
SUNNY AND COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEYS AND 55-60 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
GUSTY, REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER 10TH/25TH PERCENTILE OF NBM MIN
TEMPS, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SW VT, THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION AND
NORTHERN TACONICS, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, WITH
LOWER/MID 30S FOR ADJACENT AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION WHERE MID/UPPER 30S AND SOME PATCHY
FROST MAY OCCUR, AND ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WHERE
MID/UPPER 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S, WARMEST IN
VALLEY AREAS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS MODIFIES, STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, LIKELY PROMPTING ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES OR A FEW
FREEZE WARNINGS.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS, AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM AS
HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN AT LEAST UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S/50S, EXCEPT MAINLY 50S
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL
QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM,
PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 MPH IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF
SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KALB, KPOU, AND KGFL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS
IN STORE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG COULD
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT KGFL, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AS IMPACTS WITH VISIBILITY
IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 MPH WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY (90 TO 100 PERCENT) WITH CALM WINDS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH AREAS TO A WIDESPREAD FROST OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UNTIL TUE OR WED NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-048>051-061-082.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-047-054-058-063-083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ015.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WEBB
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
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