598
FXUS61 KALY 012325
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF NIGHTTIME FROST AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR LARGE AREAS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR BELOW
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION:
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER 10TH/25TH PERCENTILE OF NBM MIN
TEMPS, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SW VT, THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION AND
NORTHERN TACONICS, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, WITH
LOWER/MID 30S FOR ADJACENT AREAS. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION WHERE MID/UPPER 30S AND SOME
PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR, AND ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT
WHERE MID/UPPER 30S ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S, WARMEST IN
VALLEY AREAS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS MODIFIES, STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, LIKELY PROMPTING ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES OR A FEW
FREEZE WARNINGS.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER FOR FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS, AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM AS
HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
TAKE HOLD. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN AT LEAST UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S/50S, EXCEPT MAINLY 50S
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL
QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM,
PERHAPS REACHING 25-30 MPH IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WEST
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, SKIES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A DRY AND
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, WON'T EXPECT MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SO WON'T INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY EARLIER TODAY BUT ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSE TO THE AREA, WILL EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VFR. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY FAIRLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, MAINLY
UNDER 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 MPH WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY (90 TO 100 PERCENT) WITH CALM WINDS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH AREAS TO A WIDESPREAD FROST OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UNTIL TUE OR WED NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-048>051-061-082.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-047-054-058-063-083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ015.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
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