873
FXUS61 KALY 022331
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
BRINGING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO WARMING AIR MASS AND
SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH, BUT THERE
COULD BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OUTLYING/SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FROST ADVISORIES THOUGH. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH.
AFTER A COOL START, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S FRI AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DRY/CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI NIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL (MAINLY 40S) AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. PATCHY FOG COULD BE MORE PREVALENT AS DEWPOINTS LOOK
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO PRIOR NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SAT AFTERNOON AS AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS
(850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV) BUILDS IN WITH
A LIGHT SW BREEZE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV) REMAIN IN PLACE.
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL, SO DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TIME FRAME, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WILL MENTION
LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WITH 24-HR NBM PROBABILITIES OF
50-70% FOR > 0.50" RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE MUCH
NEEDED RAIN AFTER ANOTHER DRY STRETCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT BY THU, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AS WELL.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH THE ANTICIPATION FOR SUCH TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO THE PERSISTENCE OF A LIGHT BREEZE
THAT SHOULD ULTIMATELY ELIMINATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE
CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING COOLING. THAT SAID, WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 3-7 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37
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