052
FXUS61 KALY 030506
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
BRINGING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO WARMING AIR MASS AND
SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH, BUT THERE
COULD BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OUTLYING/SHELTERED AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FROST ADVISORIES THOUGH. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH.
AFTER A COOL START, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S FRI AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK W/SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DRY/CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI NIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL (MAINLY 40S) AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. PATCHY FOG COULD BE MORE PREVALENT AS DEWPOINTS LOOK
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO PRIOR NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SAT AFTERNOON AS AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS
(850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV) BUILDS IN WITH
A LIGHT SW BREEZE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV) REMAIN IN PLACE.
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL, SO DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN THE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED TIME FRAME, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WILL MENTION
LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WITH 24-HR NBM PROBABILITIES OF
50-70% FOR > 0.50" RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE MUCH
NEEDED RAIN AFTER ANOTHER DRY STRETCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT BY THU, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AS WELL.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 06Z SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AT KGFL
THIS MORNING DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO 10Z/FRI. ANY
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING
AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-7 KT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 4 KT OR LESS AFTER
23Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...15
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