467
FXUS61 KALY 032332
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL (MAINLY LOWER/MID 40S) AFTER A FEW
COLDER NIGHT, AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. PATCHY FOG
SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS, AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
WITH CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES ON SAT, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO
+2 STDEV) BUILDS IN WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE. TRANQUIL
WEATHER PERSISTS SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PRIOR
NIGHTS (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S), WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN TYPICAL
SHELTERED AREAS.
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS FURTHER ON SUN, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH/EAST OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS REACHING
THE 80-84F RANGE. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MON THROUGH TUE, AS
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF
+1 TO +2 STDEV) REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY LOWER.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY FASTER
TIMING IN THE GUIDANCE TRENDS RESULTS IN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
NW TO SE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT. NBM POPS REFLECT THIS
QUICKER TREND. 24-HR NBM PROBABILITIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND
50-70% FOR > 0.50" RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS PWAT ANOMALIES
INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AFTER
1.5 WEEKS OF DRY WEATHER. WITH THE FASTER TIMING, POPS ALSO
STEADILY DECREASE ON WED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER IN BY WED NIGHT AND
LOOK TO LAST THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND BELOW NORMAL IN THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES REGIONWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT KALB AND KPOU THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE, BUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGFL AND KPSF WILL FORCE
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGFL THAN IT IS AT
KPSF GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE WINDS, BUT KPSF SHOULD AT
LEAST SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07-12Z WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO THE IFR CATEGORY
THRESHOLDS. KGFL ON THE OTHER HAND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 03Z WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE CLOSER TO 05-06Z. PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY
AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS AS WELL WILL PLAGUE THE SITE THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE RAPID BURN OFF FROM AMPLE RADIATION WILL FORCE
THE RETURN TO VFR. THIS IS THE EXPECTATION FOR KPSF AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00Z CYCLE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER
10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5:
ALBANY: 91(1941)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1951)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(1941)
MONDAY OCTOBER 6:
ALBANY: 90(1900)
GLENS FALLS: 85(1910)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 86(2007)
TUESDAY OCTOBER 7:
ALBANY: 89(1963)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1963)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 88(1963)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37
CLIMATE...07
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