819
FXUS61 KALY 042306
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 144 PM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
JUST SOME SPOTTY DIURNAL CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE EVENING ARRIVES, ANY OF THE DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY FOR
TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT (SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS).
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN VALLEY AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF
WATER FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY AND CLEAR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT (850
HPA TEMPS NEAR +15 C WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.
VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THIS IS VERY WARM FOR EARLY OCTOBER, IT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH RECORD LEVELS (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR STATS). IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ONCE AGAIN WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DECENT MIXING. ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY
FOG.
ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA KEEPING IT DRY ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE FRONT
STARTS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE MORE OF A
GRADIENT ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE, SO WINDS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE.
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALLEY AREAS AROUND
80, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WHILE WINDS AND RH WON'T BE
REACHING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, IT MAY STILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR DUE TO THE RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUE PM INTO WED PM.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE COLD WILL SLOWLY BE CROSSING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TAKING ITS TIME CROSSING THE
AREA, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
BASED OFF THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE, THERE IS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE
OF SEEING OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITIES DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY, AS THERE IS
ONLY A 20-40% OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH. THIS RAINFALL IS MUCH
NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND ONGOING DROUGHT. THERE
STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT, BUT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CROSSING AT SOME POINT BETWEEN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THANKS TO THE SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION,
THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED, SO THIS WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL BE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY SO HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH IN THE 70S ON
TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH
THE PASSING FRONT BY WEDNESDAY, SO ONLY LOOKING FOR DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (PERHAPS SOME 50S ON
THURSDAY), WITH 30S AND 40S AT NIGHT. WHILE THERE STILL WILL BE
A BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROST, SOME
FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR OUTLYING AREAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FROST
AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR VALLEY AREAS, BUT IT WILL BE DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KGFL/KPSF OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST/FOG. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KALB, WHERE FOG COULD FORM NEAR THE TERMINAL OVER
THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVERS, SO MAINTAIN A VFR MENTION OF BCFG FOR
THIS TAF. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 5-10 KTS MIDDAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5:
ALBANY: 91(1941)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1951)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(1941)
MONDAY OCTOBER 6:
ALBANY: 90(1900)
GLENS FALLS: 85(1910)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 86(2007)
TUESDAY OCTOBER 7:
ALBANY: 89(1963)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1963)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 88(1963)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...17
CLIMATE...07
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