730
FXUS61 KALY 052247
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER, DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
-MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS NOW HAVE A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 151 PM EDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RATHER HIGH OVER THE
AREA AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER DAY OF COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A VERY WARM AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING IN TYPICAL VALLEYS, NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND THE
USUAL SHELTERED AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND QUIET INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH A MILD AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
VALLEY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BY REACHING THE LOW 80S WITH 70S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EVEN DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON MONDAY,
WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
AS THE HIGH FINALLY STARTS SHIFTING AWAY AND THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM STARTING TO APPROACH, SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM DEVELOPING WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
ALL AREAS WILL START OFF DRY ON TUESDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ORIGINALLY, MODELS WERE SUGGESTING A SLOWER
SYSTEM WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IT IS
NOW APPEARING TO BE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS, QPF
HAS INCREASED BASED OFF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NBM PROBABILITY FOR
0.50" OR LARGER IS NOW OVER 80% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EVEN THE
PROBABILITY OF 1.00" IS NOW IN THE 50-70% RANGE, ALTHOUGH 2 INCH
PROBABILITY REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
SOAKING RAINFALL, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
RATES WON'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER, THIS IS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER, MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS
VERY LIMITED. TEMPS WILL STILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AS THE FRONT CROSSES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE
DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER, LESS HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT A LINGERING
BREEZE WILL HELP PREVENT MUCH FROST FROM FORMING, WITH MANY
SPOTS SEEING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. MANY SPOTS WILL SEE A
CHILLY NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOME FROST IS EXPECTED FOR OUTLYING AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MANY
SPOTS STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE URBAN
AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL STAY DRY AND QUIET FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING, WITH HIGHS RISING BACK INTO THE
60S EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FROST WILL DIMINISH EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE RULE OF THIS
UPCOMING TAF CYCLE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY EXPECTED.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF, WHERE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME CALM
WITH CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT BOTH SITES, AND HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN
TEMPO GROUPS. FOG/MIST WILL BURN OFF BY 06/12-13Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5:
ALBANY: 91(1941)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1951)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 91(1941)
MONDAY OCTOBER 6:
ALBANY: 90(1900)
GLENS FALLS: 85(1910)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 86(2007)
TUESDAY OCTOBER 7:
ALBANY: 89(1963)
GLENS FALLS: 87(1963)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 88(1963)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...17
CLIMATE...07
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