887
FXUS61 KALY 061820
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY BUT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST TODAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT RANGE IN THE 50S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER COULD OCCUR AS CONDITIONS FOR NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ARE PRESENT FOR THIS RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AS THE SUN SETS EARLIER,
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DIMINISHES AND
JUST A STEADY TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS IN STORE. OTHERWISE,
RAINFALL QUICKLY HEADS EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ENDS BETWEEN 8
AM AND NOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THEM TO
RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCHES AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE HIGH FOR THIS RANGE AS PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 75
PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
RANGING IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S
IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID-30S IN THE VALLEYS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES, FROST CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, WINDS COULD INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH HELPS
LIMIT FROST CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A COASTAL LOW
TO DEVELOP. BUT, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW AS IF IT STAYS OFF THE COAST, WE'LL STAY MOSTLY DRY. IF IT
HEADS NORTHEAST ON SHORE, WE'LL SEE LIGHT RAIN FOR SUNDAY. KEPT
THE TREND GOING WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DATA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06
UTC AT ALL TERMINALS. THEN, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN LOW STRATUS RESULTING IN IFR CEILINGS IS AT GFL
AND PSF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (08 - 12 UTC) BEFORE CLOUDS
LIFT INTO A BRIEF MVFR DECK AND THEN BACK TO VFR BY 14-15 UTC.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT POU AND ALB AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY VERY BRIEF IFR CIGS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN SUSTAINED 5-9KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG (PERHAPS EXCEPT AT GFL). WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
MONDAY OCTOBER 6:
ALBANY: 90(1900)
GLENS FALLS: 85(1910)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 86(2007)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/33
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...31
CLIMATE...07
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