010
FXUS61 KALY 070523
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BRINGING RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY BUT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST TODAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT RANGE IN THE 50S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER COULD OCCUR AS CONDITIONS FOR NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ARE PRESENT FOR THIS RUMBLE OF THUNDER. AS THE SUN SETS EARLIER,
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DIMINISHES AND
JUST A STEADY TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS IN STORE. OTHERWISE,
RAINFALL QUICKLY HEADS EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ENDS BETWEEN 8
AM AND NOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THEM TO
RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCHES AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE HIGH FOR THIS RANGE AS PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 75
PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
RANGING IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S
IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID-30S IN THE VALLEYS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES, FROST CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, WINDS COULD INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH HELPS
LIMIT FROST CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A COASTAL LOW
TO DEVELOP. BUT, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW AS IF IT STAYS OFF THE COAST, WE'LL STAY MOSTLY DRY. IF IT
HEADS NORTHEAST ON SHORE, WE'LL SEE LIGHT RAIN FOR SUNDAY. KEPT
THE TREND GOING WITH THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DATA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MAY GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF THROUGH AROUND 12Z/TUE AS
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT KALB/KPOU BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/TUE AS
SOME LOW CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT KGFL, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND EXPANDING SOUTH AND
EAST AFTER SUNSET. AS SHOWERS INCREASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
TO MVFR/IFR FROM NW TO SE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z/WED.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE EXCEPT REMAINING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KT AT KALB. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-14 KT BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z/WED AT KGFL AND
KPSF AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT 30-40 KT, WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
MONDAY OCTOBER 6:
ALBANY: 90(1900)
GLENS FALLS: 85(1910)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 86(2007)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/33
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...07
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