488
FXUS61 KALY 071052
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORNING SUN WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY BUT MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AT
LEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. COLD NIGHTS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50
AND 1.00 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.50
INCHES.
DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME SUN THIS MORNING
WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IT
WILL ALSO BE A DRY START ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES (+2 TO +3 STDEV).
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT (BEING LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE)
WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. A GENERAL 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
1.50 INCHES COULD OCCUR WHERE POCKETS OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN SET UP. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER
ISOLATED. OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA WITH NO HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE PAST
TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS
CLOUDS AND SOME LINGERING RAIN IN THE MORNING BREAK FOR DRIER
WEATHER AND SOME SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID-50S TO UPPER 60S. A NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
20 TO 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S WITH
SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE A LIGHT BREEZE
COULD PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM SEEING FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM COULD RESULT IN SOME FROST
FORMATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS STILL
WITHIN THE GROWING SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SUN, IT WILL BE RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS.
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS
STILL WITHIN THE GROWING SEASON (EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS).
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S FRIDAY TREND INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT TREND TO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S OVER THE WEEKEND. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR REGION TO BRING ANY RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ANY PATCHY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL
AND KPSF SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z/TUE. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT KGFL, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST AFTER SUNSET. AS SHOWERS INCREASE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO MVFR/IFR FROM NW TO SE, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 02Z/WED WITH SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-14 KT BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT AFTER 08Z-10Z AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z/WED AT KGFL
AND KPSF AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 30-40 KT, WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20
TO 25 MPH. WHILE RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT
TODAY, CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASING WIND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. PER COORDINATION WITH STATE PARTNERS, A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT UNTIL 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...24
FIRE WEATHER...33
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