089
FXUS61 KALY 071922
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
322 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
FROST HAS HIGH CHANCES OF DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION:
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES
AND 1 INCH. FOR THE SOUTHERN GREENS, LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1.5 INCHES. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BRINGING COLDER AIR
AND RAINFALL GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
RANGING IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT
RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S AND MID-30S WHERE FROST CONDITIONS COULD
BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE WINDS
AS A LIGHT BREEZE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
FOR LIMITED FROST CONDITIONS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RANGE IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVERHEAD. WITH
CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND COLD TEMPERATURES, FROST CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT WE'LL LIKELY HAVE HEADLINES OUT FOR LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON (EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH OCTOBER 11TH).
FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD HAPPEN WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST SUPPORTING SCENARIO NUMBER ONE WITH THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. SCENARIO 1: THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW STAYS SOUTH AND OFF
THE COAST AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS. SCENARIO 2:
THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW STAYS CLOSER TO THE COAST, 25% OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUPPORTING WE'LL SEE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS ENTAILS THAT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LESS THAN 20% FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO
STAY TO THE SOUTH FOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CONTRIBUTE TO LATEST DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY AS SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY SPREAD OVER
GFL AND ALB TONIGHT BETWEEN 00 AND 03 UTC BEFORE REACHING PSF BY
01 AND 04 UTC AND POU BY 06 UTC. RAIN SHOULD FALL OUT OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK INITIALLY SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
RAIN TURNS STEADIER TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, RESULTING IN
MVFR VIS AND CIGS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY ENSUES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF IFR
VIS. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
SHOWCASE THIS. STEADY RAIN TURNS LIGHTER NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
12 UTC WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 13 - 16 UTC. MVFR
CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED 8-15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. THEN, WINDS SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 8-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25KTS BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS AFTER 00 UTC/WED AT KPSF AS WINDS AROUND
2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 30-40 KT, WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. LLWS SHOULD END BY 12
UTC.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page