568
FXUS61 KALY 140538
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS A COASTAL STORM DEPARTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, SHOWERS WILL
END THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 138 AM EDT...A COASTAL LOW (AROUND 1008 MB) CONTINUES TO
BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A
FEW GUSTS STILL AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, WHERE THE LOCAL TERRAIN HAS ENHANCED THE FLOW.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DEPART OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND LITTLE IMPACT FROM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON CAMS AND RADAR TRENDS,
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT THE MID-
MORNING HOURS, MAINLY FOR THE CAPITAL REGION ON EASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL QPF IS LIGHT, WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH.
WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTING AND A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE,
THE THREAT FOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER
AND RIVER LEVELS WILL STAY BELOW ACTION STAGE, EVEN DURING HIGH
TIDE.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS,
INCLUDING A LOT OF LOW STRATUS. CAMS AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH DRIER
AIR FINALLY ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY ARRIVE CLOSER TO SUNSET, WITH CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL
STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH THE EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING, TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A MORE
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIVING FROM QUEBEC
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. WHILE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
WITH THE BOUNDARY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE, IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE WIND WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY, LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE BREEZE IN PLACE MAY HELP FROST FROM FORMING FOR MOST AREAS,
BUT SOME COLDER OUTLYING AND SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME
FROST FORMING TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE ONLY AREAS STILL
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON IS THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT, AND EVEN THESE AREAS ARE PAST THE MEDIAN
DATE FOR FIRST FREEZE, SO TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS ARE NOT
UNEXPECTED OR UNUSUAL BY ANY STRETCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND IT WILL BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR A
NORTHERLY BREEZE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE. IT WILL BE FAIRLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY, BUT ALSO
COOL, AS 850 HPA TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 0 C, SO HIGHS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT, WITH LESS WIND THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
CLOSER TO BEING OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
AND SOME FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA DROPS SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A FAIRLY CLEAR SKY,
HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE 50S ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S BY
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE NBM POPS CLOSELY, WITH LIKELY SHOWERS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN AGAIN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE BEING SEEN IN THE MODELS SO THIS
COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AS OF 100 AM, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR AT
KALB/KGFL, TO MVFR AT KPOU/KPSF AS A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE
JUST OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE AND VIRGINIA. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD
LATER THIS MORNING. FOR THIS TAF, HAVE MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND SHOWING DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS
AT KALB/KGFL OVERNIGHT, AND TO IFR AT KPOU/KPSF AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL LINGER
INTO LATE MORNING, THEN IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE E/NE
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KPSF, ALTHOUGH THESE
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE AT KGFL/KPOU AND N/NW AT KALB/KPSF. LLWS WILL
LINGER INITIALLY AT KPSF WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 45-
50 KT AT 2000 FT, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...17
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