544
FXUS61 KALY 141903
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
303 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TODAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASED SUN AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS A MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT AND NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- THERE IS A 25 TO 75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR
BELOW 35 DEGREES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
NECESSITATING FROST ADVISORIES OR SOME FREEZING WARNINGS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
DISCUSSION:
A DREARY OCTOBER DAY CONTINUES AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12 UTC ALY
SOUNDING SUPPORTING LOW STRATUS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM SO LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
COMPARED TO THE NBM AND EXPECT MANY TO ONLY REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS STILL SEASONABLE FOR MID-OCTOBER. AS OUR
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN CENTRAL NY BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE
LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE RESULTING IN BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUN. WHILE
SKIES TURN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT, A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MARCHES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECTING BREEZY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS
MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO INCREASED AFTERNOON SUN. THE 25TH
AND 75TH NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25MPH
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY AS
SKIES TURN CLEARER AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30MPH REMAIN
UNDER 10% SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
THIS THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S (LOW 60S IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY).
WE REMAIN CLEAR WED NIGHT AND WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20 TO
MID-30S, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUSTAINED 5-10 MPH WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE FROST FORMATION. THURSDAY STAYS CLEAR AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INCOMING HIGH AND DEPARTING SFC
LOW REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUNNY SKIES AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE WIND GUST GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM
RANGES FROM 20 TO 25MPH WITH EVEN 10 TO 25% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO
REACH OR EXCEED 30MPH IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS.
IN ADDITION, THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS ~0.25" OR ABOUT 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE NAEFS. DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S AND RH VALUES IN THE 30% RANGE MAY SUPPORT
ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD, DEPENDING ON FUELS, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VT.
WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE PARTNERS TO DECIDE IF THERE WILL
BE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITHIN SUCH A DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS A 25 TO 75% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW 35 DEGREES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
IS STILL ONGOING (HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY NEED FROST
ADVISORIES OR EVEN FREEZE WARNINGS IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THIS AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COMING SOON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALB, POU,
PSF THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR AT GFL AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR BY 00 TO 03 UTC AT ALL TERMINALS. THEN, VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING (12 - 15 UTC)
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RETURN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS THEN TURN
GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED 5-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15-25KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...31
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