515
FXUS61 KALY 152323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF WARM UP
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT,
CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE/VIRGA SEEN ON THE KENX RADAR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING IS
EXITING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTING ALOFT. AS SUCH, DRY AND PLEASANT FALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN AN ALREADY WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT. BUT, AS GUST SPEEDS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO REACH 20 TO
30 MPH, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S, BUT
WITH A BREEZE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, FROST
FORMATION WILL BE MITIGATED. HIGHS WILL WARM BY A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY THIS PERIOD WITH VALUES TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID/UPPER 50S; LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY; AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TONIGHT, BUT WITH A REDUCTION IN WINDS, FROST/FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE AND WILL LIKELY WARRANT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
RESPECTIVELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING THROUGH
OCTOBER 21ST. LOWS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.5" ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM
ABOUT 50-60% WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER.
DISCUSSION:
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN AS THE SHORT TERM ENDED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY'S LOWS WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXITING TO THE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, THE ELEVATED GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS THAT ARE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
PRIMARILY SPANNING THE 60S TO LOW 70S. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS
THEN TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WERE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE SURROUNDING THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF A POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER- LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN WOULD THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE TROUGH BENEATH THE LOW TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY, POTENTIALLY IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS SHOULD DRY AIR SNEAK
INTO THE REAR FLANK OF THE LOW MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT PERTAINS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
HOW LONG RAIN LINGERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, GIVEN
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN IT DEPARTS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS GOING FORWARD AND PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DEPENDING
ON WHEN THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAR AS INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE LATEST VERSION OF NBM.
BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS EACH
NIGHT IN TH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF
SITES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KNOTS
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO 12Z WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. INCLUDED
LLWS AT 2 KFT FOR KPSF THROUGH 06Z AS WINDS COULD GUST 35KT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. BETWEEN 16/22Z AND 17/00Z,
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FOR BEYOND THE
CURRENT 00Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...05
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