070
FXUS61 KALY 161913
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEAUTIFUL, SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAINTAINING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ALOFT, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
RESPECTIVELY, CONTINUE ADVANCE EASTWARD, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA BUTTS UP AGAINST THEM, ACTING
TO STEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP WITH THE DECOUPLING PROCESS, OWING TO THE FULL
EFFECT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
CLEAR-SKY NIGHT. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S, ALLOWING WIDESPREAD FROST TO DEVELOP. IN PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER- HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ONGOING, A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
SIMILARLY, THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, WHERE WIDESPREAD LOWS OF 33-36
DEGREES ARE ANTICIPATED, A FROST ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
BEAUTIFUL, MID-OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
INCH CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD. THE INCREASE IN
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ALOFT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE-
STARVED, LOW- LEVEL WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
TRANSLATE TO A MODEST MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT WE
REACH ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY. THAT SAID, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
UPPER 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
AND VALUES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY IN
THE 30S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SATURDAY'S VALUES WILL BE MORE MILD IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON PERSISTS, BUT DUE
TO THE ANTICIPATED WARMING, THEY MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AS THEY
ARE FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER DURING THE
DAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER PRODUCER. THOUGH THE ANTICYCLONE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A STEP FURTHER AND HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
ANOTHER BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.5" RANGE FROM ~60-70% REGIONWIDE
WITH ~30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".
DISCUSSION:
LARGELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, STARTING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY A FRONTAL, LOW PRESSURE CYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO INFLICT ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD, SOAKING, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE TIMING IS LARGELY AGREED UPON,
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL PLAY PIVOTAL ROLES IN NOT
ONLY THE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RECORD LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
AT THIS TIME, THE FAVORED OR MORE COMMON SOLUTION DEPICTS THE
DEEPENING AND GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILTING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE ROTATE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE BORDER OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. BENEATH THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH, A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC, POTENTIALLY UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS AND CLOSING OFF
INTO A LOW SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS ELEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A SURFACE WAVE
COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION MORE OR LESS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH FILLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CLOSES OFF ALMOST EITHER JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OR JUST OVERHEAD.
BY MONDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF A
CLOSED SURFACE LOW, OWING TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THAT COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OCCLUDE, ENTRAINING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SLOWING RAINFALL IF NOT CUTTING IT OFF FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A
SECONDARY SHIELD OF WRAP-AROUND RAINFALL ENTERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NOW, THE OTHER POSSIBLE SOLUTION WOULD SEE A WEAKER TROUGH AND
SURFACE WAVE, NEITHER OF WHICH CLOSE OFF, BUT THAT TAKE A FAIRLY
SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT OF THE FAVORED SOLUTION. HOWEVER, WITH
WEAKER DYNAMICS, THE FORCING WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CERTAINLY NOT AS SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS AS
IN THE MORE COMMON DEPICTION. WITH AMPLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING
TO RIDDLE THE FORECAST, QPF IS SUBSEQUENTLY STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.5" RANGE FROM ABOUT 60-70% WHICH IS AN INCREASE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS. THOSE PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST AN 1" REMAIN RELATIVELY THE SAME AT 30-50%. AN IMPORTANT
COMMONALITY AMONG EACH SOLUTION IS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, WHICH SEEMS TO ALIGN
WELL WITH THE MODEL-DEPICTED AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THEREFORE,
WE CAN ALSO SAY THAT WHILE THERE REMAIN UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS
FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 0.5" OR
GREATER AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NBM, IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WHEREIN HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN.
BACK-DOOR SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS DEPARTURE TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, A BREAK IN RAINFALL WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING, AS YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK INTO THE REGION CLOSE ON THE HEELS
OF THE FORMER. LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY BEING THAT IT TAKES PLACE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SO WE MAINTAINED THE OUTPUT OF THE NBM
AT THIS TIME WITHOUT ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL LARGELY SPAN THE 50S TO LOW/MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S TO MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FINALLY, WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE REGION, WITH JUST A FEW SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY,
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP. WITH GOOD MIXING
AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY FOR KPSF AND KALB. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING, BUT PROBABLY
WON'T BE COMPLETELY CALM FOR TONIGHT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 3 TO 6 KTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH NO PRECIP. THE LIGHT BREEZE AND
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY,
BUT STILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ001.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...27
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