739
FXUS61 KALY 170601
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 AM EDT, CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WHERE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED, SUCH AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WHILE REMAINING IN THE
40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A NORTHWEST
BREEZE PERSISTS.
AFTER THE CHILLY START, EXPECT SUNSHINE TO MIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY, THOUGH
COULD STILL GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S WITHIN VALLEY AREAS, AND
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVERHEAD. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP OFF QUITE RAPIDLY WITHIN THE DRY AIR MASS. LOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, SOUTHERN VT AND
PERHAPS THE BERKSHIRES, WITH LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL FROST
ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/NW CT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON LINGERS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS
AND 55-60 FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR VALLEYS AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. IT WILL LIKELY
BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS WHERE
SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.5" RANGE FROM ~60-75%
REGIONWIDE WITH ~30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".
DISCUSSION:
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING NORTHWARD MONDAY.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD IS HOW
LONG IT LASTS AND TOTAL AMOUNTS, WHICH WILL DEPENDING ON
POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THE WAVE DEVELOP, PERIODS OF
RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, WITH GREATER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE STILL REMAINS A
CHANCE OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHOUT WAVE
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLIER
MONDAY WITH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST 01Z/FRI NBM HAS
24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 8 PM MONDAY FOR RAINFALL > 0.5" AT 60-75%
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SIMILAR PROBS FOR RAINFALL > 1" OF
30-50%, SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.
LATEST NBM PROBS FOR 24-HOUR MAX ENDING 2 AM MONDAY INDICATED WIND
GUSTS > 40 MPH ARE 30-50% WITHIN AND JUST EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION, LIKELY DUE TO CHANNELED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH SEEM
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES AND POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES, GREATEST AND MOST FREQUENT FOR AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AND ALSO OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MON-TUE SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL BY
WED-THU, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE 50S/60S, COOLING
TO THE 40S/50S BY WED-THU WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING TO THE
30S/40S BY WED-THU.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARDS FREEZING AT ALL THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AREAS OF FROST ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY, INCREASING BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY TO AROUND 5-10
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AROUND 18/00Z WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
053-059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...24/37
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...17
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