192
FXUS61 KALY 172353
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 7:40 PM EDT...TONIGHT, THE RIDGE CREST MOVES OVERHEAD, AS
DOES THE SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT, MOST OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FROM I-87
EAST, WILL SEE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MOST AREAS. WE
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NBM LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THIS SETUP. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TO 9AM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN CT WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT, WHICH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY, BUT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE EVENING. SATURDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS
AROUND AND MANY AREAS RETAINING A LIGHT WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY PHASE, WITH THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAT FORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND THE DEEPENING
SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT WAS DONE ON
PREVIOUS SHIFTS TO BUMP WINDS UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE GUSTS
OF 25-30+ KT, STRONGEST IN THE N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS WHERE FLOW
BECOMES CHANNELED. WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.5" RANGE FROM ~60-80%
REGIONWIDE WITH ~30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".
DISCUSSION:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ALOFT AS IT TRACKS OVER NY/NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE TRACKING
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA BY THIS POINT, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON 06/12Z GUIDANCE IN A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
HELP TO SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONT CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT, THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
WETTER, WITH 0.5-1" OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING
SHOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO 50S, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT, WE COOL OFF MORE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BACK
IN THE 30S TO 40S. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY WHERE FLOW
CHANNELING OCCURS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ
AIDS IN EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.3-1.5", WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE DAILY MAX PER
THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, WHILE NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWN TO HAVE A WET BIAS FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PER LOCAL
RESEARCH, THE OVERLAP OF STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
SUPPORTS SOME OF THESE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF RAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ONGOING
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS QUIETER AND DRIER WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ANOTHER,
LARGER UPPER LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
SPILLING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. GIVEN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WE ARE SUSPICIOUS OF SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AT GFL GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE MID-30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THEREFORE, WE INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP FROM 07-11 UTC FOR IFR FOG. OTHERWISE, WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR AREAS
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARDS, BUT THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD
LOOKS LOW DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GUSTS OF UP TO 25-35 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES
GET, BUT AT THIS POINT A "REASONABLE WORST CASE" SCENARIO IS
FOR MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 40% IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
WESTERN BENNINGTON COUNTY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 50-60%
ELSEWHERE. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD QUELL ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-053-
059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...31
FIRE WEATHER...35
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