182
FXUS61 KALY 181643
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 847 AM...CANCELED THE FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE 40S THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON INTO THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ONGOING AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NYS. ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS SUGGEST THESE
SHOWERS WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN,
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.5" RANGE FROM ~70-85%
REGIONWIDE WITH ~40-70% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".
DISCUSSION:
MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCOMING COLD
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. 01Z NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 8 PM MONDAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR BOTH >0.50 AND >1" RAINFALL (70-85%, 40-70%
RESPECTIVELY). THERE ARE EVEN SOME 30-40% PROBS FOR >2" RAINFALL
NOW INDICATED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS HEAVIER RAIN ASSUMES POTENTIAL NARROW
COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND SLOWS DOWN WITH A PIVOT-POINT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS LINGER.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITHIN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELED FLOW
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SW ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER/MID 60S. BECOMING CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN
VALLEYS AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH A
MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM, AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD,
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD STILL FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH COVERAGE/FREQUENCY GREATER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ADDED LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL
BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH
WILL INITIALLY REACH THE 50S/60S TUESDAY, COOLING TO THE 40S
(HIGHER TERRAIN) AND 50S (VALLEYS) WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 12:40 PM
EDT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/MIST AT
GFL/PSF TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WOULD
REQUIRE SOME BREAKS OF CLEARING. SHOULD WE SEE MORE CLEARING, THEN
IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CIGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT GFL/PSF.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LOW, AS THIS WILL BE
TIED TO WHEN CLEARING OCCURS. WILL REEVALUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT
AT POU AND FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5KT OR LESS FROM THE S/SE,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT GFL/POU/PSF OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FROM THE S/SE WITH GUSTS TO 20-
25KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND 40-50% WITHIN AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD LOOKS LOW
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GUSTS OF UP TO 25-35 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES
GET, BUT AT THIS POINT A "REASONABLE WORST CASE" SCENARIO IS FOR
MINIMUM RH OF 40-50% IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN
BENNINGTON COUNTY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 50-65% ELSEWHERE. A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD QUELL ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ036>038.
UPDATE...07/24
SYNOPSIS...24/35
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...35
FIRE WEATHER...24/35
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