861
FXUS61 KALY 182330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS INCREASING. THEN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER IN. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.5" HAVE INCREASED TO
80-95%, WITH 60-80% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".
DISCUSSION:
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. WITH A
WEAK S-SE ALSO DEVELOPING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL
AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES CONSIDERABLY ON SUN, AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENN/OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS, WITH RIDGING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY (850 MB V-COMP
WIND ANOMALIES INCREASE TO +2 TO +3 STDEV) SUN AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE
900 MB, SO STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN WITH PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE WARM SUN AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND CLOSES OFF. STRONG FORCING ALONG WITH IVT ANOMALIES
OF +2 TO +4 STDEV WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. NBM PROBS
HAVE INCREASED TO 60-80% FOR > 1.0" AND 30-55% FOR > 2.0" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS, WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN PIVOTING BANDS OF
SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OCCLUDES,
CAMS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGLY FORCED RAINBAND WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
MON. THIS IS WHEN RAINFALL RATES WOULD BE HEAVIEST, WITH RATES
OF ~1"/HR ALONG THIS RAINBAND. PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN
SOME URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
ONCE THE INITIAL RAINBANDS MOVE THROUGH MON MORNING, COVERAGE
MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED UNTIL ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WRAP BACK IN FROM THE WEST AS THE CENTER OF THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE
SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
PERIOD SUN NIGHT INTO MON, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S LATE MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE, A
SMALL AREA OF RIDGING BUILDS IN BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUNSHINE SHOULD INCREASE BY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON TUE
NIGHT, THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT COINCIDING WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. IT WILL START TO TURN COOLER ON WED AS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT.
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH, THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERTURES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AT TIMES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS,
WHERE UPSLOPE/LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL BE A FACTOR IN THIS
REGIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AS INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ERODING
AND EXITING THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WITHIN REACH AHEAD OF AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
RAIN WELL AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THIS CYCLE. IT IS POSSIBLE,
WITH CLEARING SKIES, THAT KGFL COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FOG TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND WIND SPEEDS SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. HOWEVER, MAINTAINED A BRIEF
TEMPO AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINTED TO
THIS TIME REFLECTING THE LOWEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. SHOULD ANY
LIGHT FOG OCCUR HERE, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BURN IT OFF WILL
YIELD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF
CYCLE. WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM SUNDAY IN COORDINATION WITH NWS
BURLINGTON AND STATE OFFICIALS. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN VT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. RH VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW
AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT IN SOME SPOTS DURING THIS TIME.
NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NY, WESTERN
MA, AND NW CT SINCE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 45 TO 55
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ALSO GUST 25 TO 35
MPH AT TIMES. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ036>038.
SYNOPSIS...07/24
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37
FIRE WEATHER...07
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