987
FXUS61 KALY 311008
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
UPDATE
MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO REFLECT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
ONGOING IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN VERMONT, AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE IS SOME BRIGHT BANDING GOING ON
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WHEREIN THESE HEAVIER RATES ARE
FALLING, BUT ACCORDING TO LATEST MESONET OBS AND MRMS ESTIMATES,
RATES ARE AT LEAST 0.25" TO 0.5" PER HOUR. THAT SAID, CREST UNIT
STREAMFLOW IN THESE AREAS HASN'T SHOWN MUCH OF A SIGNAL AND
SOILS HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM BEFORE BECOMING
COMPLETELY SATURATED SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A NON-CONCERN.
HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS BAND IN THE OFF CHANCE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS THIS COULD DRIVE SOME ADVISORY-LEVEL
PONDING OF WATER.
SYNOPSIS
A GUSTY HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE TODAY, THOUGH DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WILL KEEP TRICK-OR-TREATERS DRY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY
TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
A CLOSED, UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED NORTH AND EAST SUCH THAT IT NOW
HUGS THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE JUST SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF RAIN HAS THEREFORE SHIFTED WELL TO OUR EAST,
LEAVING PATCHY, WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS SPRAWLED THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING AND THE UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT FILLS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, RAPID DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
SUPPORTED BY A DRAMATIC WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL SEE A RATHER
SWIFT EXIT AND DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS SUCH THAT BY MID MORNING,
VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW REGIME, HOWEVER,
WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION IN LAKE- ADJACENT
AND HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS WHERE LAKE MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT RESPECTIVELY WILL MAINTAIN DREARY CONDITIONS ON THE
REAR FLANK OF THE CYCLONE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS THAT THE
TRICK-OR- TREATING FORECAST FOR THOSE IN HILL TOWNS ISN'T AS
OPTIMISTIC AS IT IS FOR THOSE IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER, THE
POTENT COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE INFLICTED ON THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME, IN TANDEM WITH THE STEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WILL
MAKE THIS HALLOWEEN GUSTY FOR EVERYONE. AND WHILE THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS; SOUTHERN GREENS; AND BERKSHIRES WHERE EASE
OF ACCESS TO THE 50-60 KT 850MB JET IS GREATER, DOWNSLOPING AND
VALLEY CHANNELING WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH
IN THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEYS (AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT)
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 50 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ENSURING HIGHS WILL BE REACHED
THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THOSE VALUES ACHIEVING ONLY THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. HOWEVER, AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW
OR A MIX THEREOF. FREEZING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ON HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS GIVEN THE
WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, EXPECT NO
IMPACT OTHER THAN WET GROUND SURFACES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S. AND WHILE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DISPLACED WELL DOWNSTREAM, ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE CONNECTION AND
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION SUCH THAT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLACKENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKENING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OWE TO DECREASED WINDS ON SATURDAY, WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE ANTICIPATED WITH
GUSTS RANGING FROM ABOUT 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH FLAT
RIDGED FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY, ENSURING A CONTINUATION TO DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH
POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN GREENS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND
30S, SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A DRY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
EVENT WITH 01Z NBM 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF 0.25" RANGING FROM
ABOUT 20% IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY TO 80% IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY REGIONWIDE
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INCREASES POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND
50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL
FLUCTUATE A BIT EACH NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE VALUES IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S BEFORE TUESDAY COOLS TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WE THEN YO-YO BACK UP THE THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE REALLY COOLING OFF TO WIDESPREAD 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND
KPSF. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LOW CEILINGS. REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MAINLY AT KGFL/KPSF LATE IN THE PERIOD ON THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SYSTEM AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND HAS BEEN ADDRESSED
WITH PROB30 GROUPS. ADDITIONALLY, THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ033-038>042-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VTZ013-014.
UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...17
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