392
FXUS61 KALY 312333
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH
BRISK WINDS ON SATURDAY AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CLOUDS
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF EASTERN
WINDHAM CO VT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 253 PM EDT... A STRONG OCCLUDING CYCLONE AROUND 975 HPA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
BETWEEN THE DEEP AND INTENSE CYCLONE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT 15-25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 40-50 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE H850 LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
50-60 KT BY 00Z/SAT ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY.
RAPID SFC PRESSURE RISES WILL BE OCCURRING WITH THE MSLP
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK BETWEEN 5
PM TONIGHT AND MIDNIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (OUTSIDE NORTHERN HERKIMER,
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES).
IN THE UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM WESTERLY UPSLOPE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP.
A COATING TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
DACKS AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40F IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL A
NOTABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL
ALLOW FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
25-40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. THE STACKED CYCLONE WILL MOVES
TOWARDS LABRADOR ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST WITH TEMPS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER AND SPOTTY MID 50S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER PA AND NY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY SAT NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT
NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS IN THE
50-55F RANGE IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS, AND 40S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH POCKETS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE MTNS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET CONFLUENT FLOW NEAR UPSTATE NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD A WARM
FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES INTERMITTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE ENSEMBLES, NBM AND SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH A COASTAL LOW AND THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY PM INTO TUE AM. WE
HAVE POPS IN THE 55-85% RANGE FOR A TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S BELOW 1000 FT ELEVATION. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID
50S ABOVE IT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME
WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MON NIGHT. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NAM MON-TUE FOR WINDS/WIND GUSTS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE PM WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVING TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS END EARLY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS LATE TUE THROUGH WED WITH SEASONABLE EARLY NOV
TEMPS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN DACKS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD FRONT EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR THU NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH AND SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...A
FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE MTNS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE. LOW END VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, A TREND TOWARDS MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY AT
KPSF TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS WELL AS KALB,
THOUGH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS 30 TO
35 KT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN 20-30 KT ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ033-038>042-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...33
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